A daily dose of philosophical food for your noodle!		NoodleFood : RSS Feed | via E-mail | Recent Comments | Archives NoodleCast : M4A via iTunes (MP3) | via Feed Reader | via E-mail Diana Hsieh : Rationally Selfish | PhiloFiles | Explore Atlas Shrugged OList Mailing Lists | FIRM | FRO | Secular Government

Tuesday, October 07, 2008 Prediction on North Korea By Paul Hsieh @ 12:00 PM StrategyPage has an interesting (and plausible) prediction about the near future of North Korea: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il apparently fell ill last April, and months of treatment left him unable to continue nuclear disarmament negotiations. It's unclear if he is back at work, but no one else seems to be able to make decisions. Meanwhile, the Chinese have better connections inside North Korea, but apparently do not share a lot of information with anyone else. Defectors from North Korea believe that the Chinese will take over if it appears that the North Korean government is about to fall apart. The Chinese plan to install pro-Chinese North Koreans as head of a new "North Korean" government, and institute the kind of economic reforms they have been urging the North Korean to undertake for over a decade. The Chinese do not want North Korea to merge with South Korea, nor do they want North Korea to collapse (and send millions of starving refugees into northern China. China and South Korea both want North Korea to stay independent, and harmless. Thus China is willing to unofficially annex North Korea, knowing that the South Koreans would go along with this as long as the fiction of North Korean independence were maintained. South Korea won't admit this, but most South Koreans know that absorbing North Korea would put a big dent in South Korean living standards. That is more unpopular than any other outcome. As Diana says, it's pathetic when China has to come into a country and be the agent of free market reforms... Labels: Foreign Policy Share |    E-mail Paul Hsieh     PermaLink ()    Comments (New Page)   Subscribe to NoodleFood Blog Posts via Feed Reader   via E-mail Subscribe to NoodleCast Podcasts M4A via iTunes (MP3)   via Feed Reader   via E-mail

Comments
	Tuesday, October 7, 2008 at 12:03:36 mst Comment ID: #1 Name: Jeff Montgomery URL: http://funwithgravity.blogspot.com/ From one puppet government http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2005/ea_nkorea_02_09.html to another. Frankly I've been surprised at the tolerance within China for economic development. My hope is that it will stimulate further liberalization, and I think having the same thing happen in North Korea would be better than having a madman in charge of a starving populace.
	Tuesday, October 7, 2008 at 12:21:05 mst Comment ID: #2 Name: Proper Solutions 1) Nice metaphor for our own part of the world where our banking system has become "Il". Perhaps the Chinese will take that over as well but still allow it "to stay independent, and harmless". 2) With a population of over 1 billion, the Chinese should be able to do a Kim Jong Il look-alike search and stage a Kim Jong Il Resurection for the North Koreans. They could kill two birds with one stone by allowing Kim to attain his god status and install their own puppet leader.
	Wednesday, October 8, 2008 at 10:32:56 mst Comment ID: #3 Name: Willard One thing to consider is that China's one child police has left the country with an imbalance of men over women. I understand that this has created large market for North Korean brides that is being filled both legally and illegally. Could a de facto absorption of North Korea help China ease some of the social pressures from that gender imbalance?
Post Your Comment
Name or Handle: E-mail: URL:   Remember Me   Comment:   No HTML is allowed. URLs will be automatically converted into clickable links. Commenters are welcome to clearly state their own views, as well as to criticize opposing views and arguments. Unjust personal attacks are not welcome. The NoodleFood comments are not a general discussion board. Do not post random questions or comments, except on the designated "open threads" posted on Wednesdays and Sundays. To weed out spammers: 4 plus 6 equals 1163004077056654196