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 Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Long View of the US Economy

By Paul Hsieh @ 1:45 PM

Despite all of the recent economic turmoil, it's important to keep a long-term perspective. If the currently semi-free US economy is allowed to function, we will still be in pretty good shape. The following graph of GDP per capital over the past 200 years shows how the US economy has done. Even the Great Depression and WWII can be seen as fairly minor blips in the overall upward trend.



However, the one thing that we can do to screw things up is to impose massive new regulations. This sort of self-inflicted damage could harm the long-term future economy far more than any particular stock market crash. Hence, it's important to continue to defend and advocate for the free market.

(Graph via Center for Global Development and Will Wilkinson.)

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 Comments

Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 14:00:55 mst
Comment ID: #1
Name: Sajid

Since I am still a jobless student I was actually becoming quite worried about the state of the economy. This graphic has cheeered me up. Thanks :).


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 15:51:01 mst
Comment ID: #2
Name: Jim May
E-mail: seerak(at)gmail.com

On the one hand, that graph is logarithmic in its vertical axis -- if so, that line would look even more optimistic.

On the other hand, is it adjusted for inflation?


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 15:53:21 mst
Comment ID: #3
Name: Michael Labeit
E-mail: logician169(at)yahoo.com
URL: http://unit-perspective.blogspot.com

Though the business cycle is a state-creation, we are capitalistic enough to overcome the misallocations and malinvestments caused by government. I need a job too and will be deployed evetualy so I'll be asking my captain to release me from my unit so I can go active artillery in Afghanistan.


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 16:10:43 mst
Comment ID: #4
Name: John Harris
E-mail: John.Harris00 at gmail.com

http://lifehacker.com/5066440/credit-crisis-explained-as-an-antarct ...

Rather neat, if not overly simplistic.

John.


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 17:35:02 mst
Comment ID: #5
Name: Steve D'Ippolito

Jim,

You caught on to the fact that the graph is logarithmic, which is why I am surprised you didn't see the text that says "real 1990 dollars". (In other words, yes it is adjusted for inflation.)

Interesting that even after the disruption from 1930 to 1950 it appears to have returned to the original trend line.


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 18:47:54 mst
Comment ID: #6
Name: Jeff

Was the entire graph inflation adjusted in the same way? I understand that the way they are doing it now significantly understates the rate of inflation.


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 19:01:04 mst
Comment ID: #7
Name: Jeff Montgomery
E-mail: jamontgom(at)hotmail.com
URL: http://funwithgravity.blogspot.com/

If you look at a graph of the Dow Jones over the last few decades you see pretty much the same thing, with a recent small downward blip after 9/11, and peaks for recent loose-credit bubbles (not adjusted for inflation). If you chop off those bubbles, which in real terms never really existed anyway, the DJI would be maybe 9,500 now.

Unfortunately, it seems every week our government is falling over itself trying to do something even more stupid than before. "Hey, who else is doing badly? Let's invest your money in them!!"


Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 22:31:07 mst
Comment ID: #8
Name: Jim May
E-mail: seerak(at)gmail.com

"You caught on to the fact that the graph is logarithmic, which is why I am surprised you didn't see the text that says "real 1990 dollars". (In other words, yes it is adjusted for inflation.)"

That's typical. My engineeering background comes through again -- and I'm known for spotting the obscure details evan as I miss the bloody obvious :)


Thursday, October 23, 2008 at 6:36:36 mst
Comment ID: #9
Name: Maurizio Natali
E-mail: maunat(at)hotmail.com
URL: http://perloggettivismo.blogspot.com/

Hi,
I would like to show you a picture I found on the net studying the gold-standard. I don't know if you already know it but I really like this picture. This graph better shows the effects of gold standard on the monetary system.

http://www.usemlab.com/images/stories/grafici/clockworkgold/oro_e_a ...

The picture shows the ratio between 30 most capitalized titles of Dow Jones and the price of one ounce of gold. As you can see, after the gold standard and after creation of FED(1913)(red part of the graph) the instability is quite superior to the first part of the pattern. This evidence clearly shows the benefits of gold standard.

Bye,

MN


Thursday, October 23, 2008 at 7:25:50 mst
Comment ID: #10
Name: Blue

I'd be interested in seeing this graph from that news paper article with labeling of specific significant economic influences corresponding to each year. For example about the above thing about increased instability after we left the gold standard. Comparison on this graph is that the line has no perceptible down turns, just occasional slowings in rate of increase, up until shortly after 1890 when there's a sudden much sharper increase than there had been on the rest of the graph previously and then a sharp down turn very soon afterward and in 1890 the Sherman Anti-Trust Act and Sherman Silver Purchase Act were put into law. Seeing more of significant events along a time line and what happens to the line is still just correlation, but it would be a nice thing to have to have to show to get people at least wanting to start investigating why these correlations exist. Maybe, just maybe, after doing such some people may actually rethink their beliefs on if government forcing of the economy can actually induce progress and prosperity in general or not.


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