Headed West By Diana Hsieh @ 9:36 PM
I'm off to Los Angeles tomorrow morning for The Objectivist Center's advanced seminar. After three delightful days of discussing papers, including my own, Paul will be joining me for a week of the regular summer seminar. So I probably won't be blogging very much over the next ten days. But I promise to give a full report when I return.
Sony Speak By Diana Hsieh @ 11:24 AM
The Plantronics analog microphone headset for my recently acquired Sony digital voice recorder just arrived. Gauging by a first test, it seems to make a huge difference in the quality of Dragon NaturallySpeaking's transcription from the DVR. Here was my first test, with corrections of errors in brackets:
This is the test of the new analog microphone from Plantronics. I'm not sure how well this will work I might need additional training in Dragon NaturallySpeaking before this set up [setup] with the digital was [voice] recorder and microphone works adequately
So only two errors! That's much better than what I was getting without the microphone headset. Those transcriptions were way, way off.
However, all is not rosy here in the land of transcription. Yesterday I discovered that my Sony DVR has exactly the same problem as my Sony Clie, namely that my computer (running Win2000) will not read any memory stick in the usual fashion. My computer shows the memory stick (either in the Clie or in the DVR) as a drive, but it will not read that drive. It complains that the drive is not formatted, which is a bald-faced lie. With the Clie, I managed to transfer data between the computer and the memory stick using a handy little program called BlueSync, which syncs my memory stick during a HotSync.
So now, in order to transfer my voice recordings from the DVR to the computer for transcription, I have to move the memory card to the Clie and then HotSync. This is rather inconvenient, but at least that works. And I am particularly delighted to know that Dragon NaturallySpeaking's transcription from the DVR with the new microphone works wonders!
They are products of a culture in which to tell a lie...creates no dissonance. They don't suffer from the problem of telling lies that exists in Judeo-Christian culture. Truth is seen as an irrelevant category. There is only that which serves your purpose and that which doesn't. They see themselves as emissaries of a national movement for whom everything is permissible. There is no such thing as "the truth."
Clearly, Arafat is a lying sack of murderous shit. But does Arab or Islamic culture in general place less value on honesty and truth than does western culture? Based on the seemingly endless stream of absurd lies coming from that region, I suspect so. (Not that I think that Westerners hold truth and honesty in high enough regard, but that is another story.) And no, that's not racism, it's just not cultural relativism either.
One likely side effect of a culture of dishonesty with others is that it promotes a culture of self-deception. The fact that others frequently lie allows for a convenient escape hatch for any unpleasant facts that come your way, namely "Oh, they must be lying." For example, when Osama bin Laden claimed credit for the bombing in the videotape, there was a great outcry from the Arab world that he didn't do it. That denial makes sense, in a twisted sort of way. If your leaders lie to you all the time, then you definitely shouldn't believe anything bad that they say. But, to be rational and honest and objective, you shouldn't believe anything good they say either.
Here's a related tidbit: According to anthropologists from and studying Iran, Iranians tend to say "No problem" to request for favors, even when they have no intention of performing such favors. It is generally considered rude to outright refuse someone. That seems to me to be a serious perversion of manners to me!
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You slipped away. You swore your daughter and staff to secrecy. Nobody was to know. Your wish was to be remembered as vital and indestructible by your public and your family -- and you will be.
As you directed, there will be no funeral, no memorial, and your ashes will be quietly scattered over your beloved Lake Michigan. A fine plan, but how are the people you left behind to deal with the grief you have left in your wake?
What sort of callous person dies in deliberate silence like this? People don't have funerals for their own benefit. They're dead. What the living does has no effect on them any longer!
Funerals are for the benefit of the living, for the people who are left behind, for the people with holes in their hearts, for the people who can gain some comfort and solace by grieving with others. To forbid others this comfort when it makes no difference to you is perhaps the cruelest thing you can do to those allegedly loved ones.
To keep a serious illness secret until death is certainly more justifiable, as it allows a person to live to their fullest until their dying day. It is not a choice that I would make, but it is a legitimate and moral choice. However, such concealment means that the death comes as a terrible shock to others. And so secrecy before death makes a funeral after death so much more important in the grief process for those left behind. So to demand secrecy before death and silence afterwards is cruel indeed.
People generally condemn such behavior as "selfish." But Ann Landers, and people who do such things, usually aren't benefiting themselves in such action. As I mentioned, it makes no difference to dead Ann Landers whether people tend to her lifeless body this way or that way. What such allegedly "selfish" people all are is unthinking. They are not conscious of what they are doing. Or they are deliberately evil.
This is the first thing that I am writing using Dragon NaturallySpeaking. It is working fairly well although making a number of mistakes. There are ways to fix that of which I am not yet aware. Overall it is pretty cool and I'm looking forward to learning how to use it to write blog entries, philosophy lectures, and philosophy papers with it.
Sadly, this is a pretty dorky letter. But it's hard to think of things to say when using this software for the first time. I am pretty impressed with the microphone, it seems to be working rather well. And the software is pretty cool too. If it makes a mistake, I can give it verbal commands to correct its errors. It even gives me a menu of possible alternatives, like a spell checker. There are all manner of features that I'll need to learn to get this to work properly.
I suppose that I will post this silly letter on my blog. But if I'm going to do that I'd better tell people what I've actually bought. I bought a high-end Sony digital voice recorder, one that uses a memory stick and came bundled with Dragon NaturallySpeaking version 6 (ICD-MS515VTP). I also bought a USB digital headset from Plantronics. I have also purchased other headset, an analog one from Plantronics, to be used with the digital voice recorder that will arrive tomorrow.
For the benefit of people other than Paul: So why did I buy this stuff? Well first of all, I do have problems with carpal tunnel. Since I spend so much time at my desk everyday, I am looking forward to relaxing back in my chair, far from my keyboard, while I write. Second, I often find that I have interesting philosophical thoughts while I'm out and about, far from my computer, particularly while I'm listening to be taped lectures. I often carry a crummy digital recorder to record such thoughts, then translate them back at my computer. But that seemed rather inefficient. Third, I was fascinated with the suggestion of one user of Dragon NaturallySpeaking that his writing was better, more friendly, more conversational, less dry, less academic, thanks to using voice recognition software.
So far, I'm pretty impressed. At the moment it is taking me more time to speak this than it would for me to type it. But I'm sure my speed will increase. I'm not much of a gadget freak, but this is pretty cool.
Memento By Diana Hsieh @ 7:59 AM
Paul and I watched Memento last night. Wow! I'm definitely looking forward to rewatching it. Here are a few non-spoiling comments:
The backwards progression in time was perfect for this plot. All the mystery resided in the influence of the past, not in any future events.
The plot was amazingly tightly wound. Most movies are cluttered with extraneous scenes, pointless little bits of time fillers. Those same movies usually also omit elements essential to a good movie. But in Memento, every moment is essential to the plot. Nothing is expendable. Nothing is extraneous.
I have been reading and enjoying Ayn Rand's Romantic Manifesto these past few days. So towards the end of the movie, I began wondering if the movie was entirely naturalistic. After all, Leonard seems driven by his past, most of which he cannot remember or comprehend. But the end of the movie proved me gloriously wrong. Leonard's own conscious and deliberate choice, combined with his virtues, created his future.
I love this quote from Leonard, said in the beginning of the movie: "My wife deserves vengeance. Doesn't make any difference whether I know about it. Just because there are things I don't remember doesn't make my actions meaningless. The world doesn't disappear when you close your eyes, does it?" That statement has a rather different meaning at the end, no?
The Wicked Witch is Dead By Diana Hsieh @ 8:44 PM
Ann Landers is dead. I can't say I'm sorry. I've read her column intermittently over the years and regularly since my return to philosophy last summer. (Reading such advice columns and listening to Dr. Laura helps me get a sense for the sorts of moral dilemmas that ordinary people struggle with everyday.)
Ann Landers doled out some seriously awful advice on a regular basis. She was an altruist of the worst kind, recommending that people but up with obnoxious, mean, and immoral people because they were "probably lonely." She routinely advocated putting people on medication as a way of solving moral flaws. In contrast, her twin sister Dear Abby, generally doles out good, common sense advice, despite her proclivity for sappy mystical stories about pennies from heaven.
Containment is Glorious By Diana Hsieh @ 8:16 PM
The whole eastern edge of the fire has now been contained! VodkaPundit, worry no more! So now the only uncontained area of the Hayman fire is to the west, burning into wilderness, not homes. Woohoo! Hooray for firefighters!
In more troubling news, a number of small fires flared up elsewhere in Douglas County today, including one that was fairly close to us. They were all rapidly extinguished, thankfully. It was a grim reminder that the Hayman fire will likely not be the only wildfire we face this summer. Anyone want to start a betting pool for the number of evacuation alerts, voluntary evacuations, and mandatory evacuations that NoodleFood and GeekPress will face this summer? We're already 1-1-0. :-/
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Friday, June 21, 2002
Wild and Woolly! By Diana Hsieh @ 10:07 PM
We are experiencing a wild and woolly storm here at this very moment! Poor Abby is, as usual, beside herself with worry over the wind and the thunder and the lightening. (Thankfully, the rain just started too.)
Don't tell Paul, but I let her up on the forbidden couch to sit with me. I was hoping that she would be comforted by my presence. But I clearly didn't make the grade, as she shortly jumped over the couch to go crawl under my desk, where she now lays, quivering in fear. Poor doggie.
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Second Test Results By Diana Hsieh @ 9:24 PM
So I took the test again to see how much my results would vary from just a few hours ago. I worked harder at a realistic assessment of my 7-ness, which is evidenced by its lower score, I think. So here they are:
Enneagram Test Results #2
Type
Score
Summary
5
21
Fives are basically on some level ambivalent about the world, consequently, their mind is usually their best friend. They like to analyze things and make sense of them (that is their anchor), perception and invention come naturally. The immense inner world of fives can cause them to lose touch or interest in reality.
8
13
Eights are natural leaders. They are straight forward, direct, large personalities, that are unlikely to back down to adversity. They have a talent for motivating others. They have a strong sense of justice and are often protectors of the weak. However, they also have short fuses and can become domineering tyrants.
4
10
Fours are all about being unique and creating their own distinct culture. They experience the highs and lows of life more intensely than other types. They take great pride in their aesthetic tastes. Fours often feel like misplaced children, and they long for a sense of real family.
7
10
Sevens are optimistic thrill seekers that see life as an adventure. They are always thinking of new possibilities and adventures. This constant zest for life can become escapism. Once things lose there fun they are no longer interested, so many projects go unfinished. Essentially, they avoid the difficulties of life because they fear being overwhelmed by them.
3
10
Threes derive self worth from success in the external world. They are highly skilled at adapting themselves in whatever way necessary to achieve success. This external success driven image often comes at a price of having a personal identity and they often are uncertain of who they really are.
6
9
Sixes are overly alert and anxious. They are skeptical of the status quo but are also fearful of being on their own. They satisfy their need for security and belonging by establishing strong friendships and/or loyally backing a cause.
1
9
Ones are idealistic and strive for perfection. Morals and ethics drive them. They live with an overbearing internal critic that never rests. They are always comparing themselves to others and are overly concerned with external criticism. They can be very judgmental and others perceive them as too uptight.
9
8
Nines are calm, laid-back, and optimistic. They are able to see everyone's point of view, and have a natural desire for making peace. Consequently, they are effective mediators. Fearful of conflict and separation from others, they can be too accommodating and unassertive.
2
2
Twos are defined by their empathy of other people. They are uniquely gifted at tuning in on the feelings of others. This makes them great networkers, but being too caught up with other people can cause them to lose track of their own personal well being. Two charity is really a projection of how they want others to care for them.
There is a fair amount of difference in the ordering of the #2 to #8 slots compared to my first test. But I suppose that I can be very certain that I am a 5 and nothing like a 2. Over time, a person is supposed to integrate aspects of all the enneagram types into their personality. Perhaps I've just done that very well! :-)
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Riso's enneagrams quickly captured my attention for a few reasons. First, Riso's enneagrams seemed to distinctly and clearly capture most people's personalities in a way that other typing schemes do not. Second, the description of my own personality type (which I'll get to in a minute) identified and integrated some very strange traits of mine that I never ever would have thought of related to each other or shared with others. Third, there is little rosy glow to the enneagrams, as each of Riso's descriptions of the nine enneagram types includes ten clearly identified levels of healthy to unhealthy functioning within that type. (To know that an unhealthy person of my personality type is the Unabomber is a bit chilling.)
Anyway, my reading Personality Types made it quite clear that I am a 5. (I expect that a great many bloggers are 5s.) I got similar results from the Similar Minds enneagram test:
Here's my detailed results:
Enneagram Test Results
Type
Score
Summary
5
19
Fives are basically on some level ambivalent about the world, consequently, their mind is usually their best friend. They like to analyze things and make sense of them (that is their anchor), perception and invention come naturally. The immense inner world of fives can cause them to lose touch or interest in reality.
7
14
Sevens are optimistic thrill seekers that see life as an adventure. They are always thinking of new possibilities and adventures. This constant zest for life can become escapism. Once things lose there fun they are no longer interested, so many projects go unfinished. Essentially, they avoid the difficulties of life because they fear being overwhelmed by them.
8
12
Eights are natural leaders. They are straight forward, direct, large personalities, that are unlikely to back down to adversity. They have a talent for motivating others. They have a strong sense of justice and are often protectors of the weak. However, they also have short fuses and can become domineering tyrants.
9
11
Nines are calm, laid-back, and optimistic. They are able to see everyone's point of view, and have a natural desire for making peace. Consequently, they are effective mediators. Fearful of conflict and separation from others, they can be too accommodating and unassertive.
3
10
Threes derive self worth from success in the external world. They are highly skilled at adapting themselves in whatever way necessary to achieve success. This external success driven image often comes at a price of having a personal identity and they often are uncertain of who they really are.
1
10
Ones are idealistic and strive for perfection. Morals and ethics drive them. They live with an overbearing internal critic that never rests. They are always comparing themselves to others and are overly concerned with external criticism. They can be very judgmental and others perceive them as too uptight.
6
8
Sixes are overly alert and anxious. They are skeptical of the status quo but are also fearful of being on their own. They satisfy their need for security and belonging by establishing strong friendships and/or loyally backing a cause.
4
8
Fours are all about being unique and creating their own distinct culture. They experience the highs and lows of life more intensely than other types. They take great pride in their aesthetic tastes. Fours often feel like misplaced children, and they long for a sense of real family.
2
5
Twos are defined by their empathy of other people. They are uniquely gifted at tuning in on the feelings of others. This makes them great networkers, but being too caught up with other people can cause them to lose track of their own personal well being. Two charity is really a projection of how they want others to care for them.
I tend to think that I scored more 7-ish on this test than I actually am. Interestingly, I know from too much personal experience that 7s are rather dangerous people for me to become close friends with. I suspect that it is my own unhealthy tendencies towards 7-ness that make 7s both attractive and dangerous to me. (So I might have score too highly 7-ish because I am ultra-aware of any minor slippage in an unhealthy 7-ish direction. But not all my 7-ness is unhealthy -- and much of it is healthy. Certainly without it, I would be boring with a capital b.)
I wonder whether the longer test would give better results. This one didn't seem to hit on many of the core issues for any particular type, as it was simply too short. I also wonder whether how much my results would vary if I took the test in a week or month or year. I'm sure that I'd still be a 5, the only question is how much the above numbers would vary.
Oh, and Paul's results are here. It is interesting to me that he rated more 5-ish than me. But even more interesting (and accurate, when I think of it) is his high 9-ish score.
Since Paul was as similar to me as I was to Eric Raymond, we tried a direct comparison here. As it turns out, Paul and Eric have a higher similarity and compatibility rating (95% and 96%, respectively) than I do with Paul. Oh dear! I just hope that Paul doesn't file for divorce and elope to Vegas with Eric Raymond!
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I, for one, find Bernstein's apology to be sad and degrading. It is inconsistent with the virtue of pride. (Pride requires that we acknowledge and correct our moral failings, but not that we subject ourselves to a public humiliation of detailing those failings.)
For the sake of argument, let's presume that Bernstein did make a serious error in judgment in publishing his short comment in JARS. An adequate apology would be something along the lines of the following:
"I recently published a short comment in JARS regarding my CliffsNotes books. I was ignorant of the sort of articles and authors JARS publishes, many/most/all of which I emphatically do not sanction. I ought to have investigated further before giving my consent to publish. I do not approve of JARS in any way and will not publish in that forum again. I apologize for any confusion this incident might have created."
Such an apology would have conveyed the appropriate information and regret without going into the pathetic and demeaning details of whether Bernstein used or did not use his mind properly. (Those details might be relevant to a more personal discussion with a friend, but not to the whole world.)
Busy Bee By Diana Hsieh @ 2:15 PM
I've been busy updating the web site today!
I've posted my lecture to the COLP convention, The Philosophical Underpinnings of Capitalism, which argues that political theories collapse into one of four distinct forms of statism without a philosophical foundation of reason, egoism, harmony of interests, and mind-body integration.
I've now been at the blogging game for three months, posting almost every weekday and not infrequently on weekends. My guess is that I'm ready to scale back to once or twice a week -- I've never thought that I could maintain this initial pace for the long term, but I figured more-or-less daily posting at the outset was necessary to build up readers. I hope the folks who've discovered this blog over the past three months will continue to tune in even if it's updated less frequently. We'll see.
How I was Seduced by Epistemology By Diana Hsieh @ 10:30 PM
A while back, I was working on my lecture on metaphysics and epistemology for the Objectivism 101 course soon to be given at the TOC Summer Seminar. Working on that lecture reminded me that my own serious interest in Objectivism was largely sparked by Ayn Rand's short description of her theory of concepts in "The Objectivist Ethics" (of VOS). At the time, I was immersed in the confusion and muddle of a very demanding philosophy of language course. The obviousness and simplicity of Ayn Rand's account hit me like a sack of bricks:
A "concept" is a mental integration of two or more perceptual concretes, which are isolated by a process of abstraction and united by means of a specific definition. Every word of man's language, with the exception of proper names, denotes a concept, an abstraction that stands for an unlimited number of concretes of a specific kind. It is by organizing his perceptual material into concepts, and his concepts into wider and still wider concepts that man is able to grasp and retain, to identify and integrate an unlimited amount of knowledge, a knowledge extending beyond the immediate perceptions of any given, immediate moment. Man's sense organs function automatically; man's brain integrates his sense data into percepts automatically; but the process of integrating percepts into concepts--the process of abstraction and of concept -formation--is not automatic. (VOS 21)
It was clear to me at the time -- and is even more clear now -- that this description was merely a beginning of a theory of concepts. But what a promising beginning it was -- and still is!
So I've long wanted to write a book entitled How I was Seduced by Epistemology. Perhaps that will be the title of my autobiography when I'm a wrinkled old philosopher. In any case, with a title like that, the book cover will have to look like this:
A couple of months ago, I opined that Israel should pull back its forces after invading and destroying a number of Palestinian cities. My thinking was that an Israeli withdrawal might give peace talks a chance to get under way. When Ehud Barak appeared on The Factor, I suggested to him that if the bombings continued, Israel could go right back in.
Well, the homicide bombings have continued, and the situation is now totally out of control. Arafat can't handle Hamas and other killers, and civilians are laying dead in the streets.
So now Israel should take any and all measures to kill the terrorists. Whatever the Sharon government deems appropriate should be done. No cause, no injustice can justify bombing attacks on buses and restaurants where children are. That is simply unacceptable in the name of any movement.
Foolish people who justify such murder will always point to atrocities on the other side. Al Qaeda does that. Those terrorists believe they can kill American civilians because we support Israel, and on and on.
But those arguments can only persuade sick minds. The truth is that some Palestinian terrorist groups want to destroy Israel and will not negotiate. Those people must be killed, and America should support Israel in its quest to eliminate the terrorist leadership.
Enough is enough. All decent human beings must act against the growing terror that threatens this world. Excuses for the murder of innocent civilians must be condemned.
The anti-children people tend to argue that parents are deluded about their own happiness, that they are rationalizing their terrible mistake of having children by claiming that they actually enjoy it. That claim requires substantial, empirical proof for two reasons.
First: Outsiders can't see into the heads of parents to actually determine whether they are happy or not. Those parents, on the other hand, have direct access to their emotional states. To claim greater knowledge of their emotional states without concrete evidence is absurd. We must take parents at their word about their own happiness unless there is some *particular* reason to believe them deluded.
Second: Of course it is true that people can be made happy by irrational things. And surely some parents are irrationally happy in parenthood, perhaps because it allows them to live their long-extinguished dreams of becoming a musician through their child. But I know of many happy parents who live by the principles of a rational, egoistic morality in their daily lives. The idea that they have abandoned that rational egoism where their children are concerned is implausible. It is yet another bold claim that requires substantial proof.
Without proof of the above points, the basic argument of anti-childrenists is hopelessly circular. It presumes that parenting is so god-awful that no rational person could possible enjoy it. Hence parents who claim to enjoy it must be deluded. The argument presumes the very conclusion it attempts to prove. That's a terribly fallacious argument!
Parenting is hard work. It can be aggravating and painful and inconvenient and expensive. But so are other things in life, from preparing philosophy lectures to caring for a sick dog. But I wouldn't give up either philosophy or dogs simply because neither is perfectly delightful all the time. And I know many rational, egoistic parents who feel exactly the same way about their children.
It is my sad duty to report that our Independence Institute Senior Fellow Charles King came in second place in the "men's over 80-year-old" category of the Bolder Boulder, Boulder Colorado's Memorial Day's marathon. That type of slack-ass behavior is not what we expect from a member of our team. He will do better next year, or we'll can him. As for me, I was not allowed to compete in the race because they said it was against the rules to drive. Socialist bastards.
Speaking of socialists, in my Sunday column for the Boulder Daily Camera, I examined Boulder plan to limit jobs for the perfect jobs to population ratio. You really have to read this!
TOC Seminar Update By Diana Hsieh @ 10:41 PM
A number of concerned friends have e-mailed me in the past few days about my presence at upcoming Summer Seminar of The Objectivist Center, given that the Hayman fire still threatens home and hearth. Given my presentation schedule, after all, I expect that my absence would be rather problematic. I am slated to present my paper on false excuses at the Advanced Seminar that runs from June 26th to June 29th. At the regular seminar from June 29 to July 6, I am giving the six-lecture introductory course on Objectivism entitled Objectivism 101, as well as a single lecture on honesty entitled White Lies, Black Lies. Oh, and of course, Paul is slated to (merely) attend the regular seminar too.
But don't worry, I'll be there! Paul and I will be more or less evacuating while we are gone, in case the fire does head northeast while we're gone. Our essential stuff (now packed in our vehicles) will be moved into storage. The horses will remain with the ever-generous Mike Paul until we return. Our usual and wonderful neighborhood housesitter will stay at our house to take care of the dogs and cats, ready to evacuate them to the Buddy Center of the Denver Dumb Friends League if needed.
Frankly, it will be nice to be away for a while. The need to stay tethered close to home, religiously watching the news three times a day, constantly focusing on about even small shifts in the weather outside, alternating between irrational hope and irrational despair, and mostly just waiting for the real emergency to finally materialize has been exhausting. I'm very pleased that I'll be able to leave town knowing that everything important has already been arranged.
Also, I expect that attending the TOC Seminar will sooth my intense aggravation of being forced to miss the much-looked-forward-to IHS Social Change Workshop going on right now. I haven't been able to read The Volkh Conspiracy these past few days, due to blinding envy upon reading posts from Sasha like this one.
So don't worry guys, we'll be there, come (literally) hell or high water!
Singing in the Rain! By Diana Hsieh @ 9:38 PM
At the informational meeting on the Hayman Fire tonight, Ron Raley was back providing updates on the fire. (Two days ago, his deputy was at the meeting instead. He was also very informed and very informative.) Raley said that the fire has now grown to about 137,000 acres.
In Raley's words, the weather has been "absolutely horrendous" for the past few days, particularly yesterday. The high temperatures and low humidity that made yesterday brutal for the firefighters were, thankfully, a little more moderate today. (Also the fire mostly pushed a bit south and east towards Woodland Park today.)
Raley said that the fuel conditions in this fire were "the worst conditions that [he's] ever seen," due to the low humidity present in the large quantity of fuels. We can thank this year's drought for that.
The (4-6 foot hand) lines have held on the north and south sides of the fire (except for a break-out around "L"), but the east side of the fire is out of control. That east side did go through Westcreek yesterday. Many structures were burned, but many were saved. The fire did also cross Highway 67 in that area.
The most pressing danger for those of us north of the fire is that the out-of-control eastern edge may continue to move east, then turn northward towards various subdivisions like Perry Park. (The northernmost "U" and southernmost "W" bits of that eastern edge are of greatest concern in terms of break-out potential.) Raley said that under adverse weather conditions, the fire could reach Perry Park in 9-10 hours from its present position.
To address that risk, Raley said that firefighters are trying to pinch off the north side of that edge of the fire. There are also large contingency lines going in along Rampart Ridge to prevent the fire from moving towards those communities.
Here's the map posted at the meeting, current as of this afternoon. Once again, we are near the bright green dot to the northeast of the fire.
Sergeant Dennis of the Douglas County Sheriff, who was also at the meeting two days ago, gave the news regarding Douglas County evacuations. The most interesting tidbit from him was that he was an advocate of returning people to their homes around areas northeast of the fire ("N") where the line has held for many days -- until the fire update meeting tonight.
There, he learned that the fire has a much greater potential to get out-of-control than he previously thought. In particular, the fire could encircle those neighborhoods (like Nighthawk) and then burn back on itself, thereby trapping any residents that were permitted to reoccupy their homes. After learning that, he could no longer in good conscience advocate returning people to their homes.
The third person to speak was Randy Hickenbottom, District Ranger for the South Platte Ranger District of the Forest Service. He presented some rather interesting information on the serious danger of flooding in the coming weeks and months in the burned areas. He said that 50-60% of the fire area has been intensively burned, meaning reduced to mineral soil and blackened sticks of tree trunks. In other words, over 60,000 acres in a serious watershed area have lost all erosion control. A heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides, thereby threatening both life and property, even after the fire has been put out. Yikes!
So yet another informative meeting.
The best news of the evening is that on the drive home, I was driving through real rain! The storm looked to be mostly south, over the fire. There was lots of lightening, but also enough rain to keep my windshield wipers on low for the last seven minutes of my drive home. The rain seems to have stopped for now and the weather report indicates that the storm has moved on. Any little bit of wet is wonderful news!
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Officials were particularly concerned about Perry Park, a subdivision in a canyon in Douglas County. "If the fire gets into that area, those canyons act like a chimney," Colwell said. "Winds are still the wild card."
Oh dear. Let's hope it doesn't get that far. Perry Park is a pretty big subdivision.
Our neighborhood, Indian Creek Ranch, is fairly hilly, but I'm not really sure how it compares to Perry Park. My vague recollection is that Perry Park is both hillier and more densely covered with scrub oak than here. Thankfully, we do have an excellent buffer between us and Pike National Forest in the form of a large ranch consisting mostly of grassland. But I believe that there are continuous and dense lines of trees from the forest straight through our neighborhood, along Rainbow Creek and Indian Creek.
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Tuesday's Hayman Fire Map By Diana Hsieh @ 12:38 PM
So here's the latest map, current as of yesterday evening. It's clear that the fire has grown a great deal towards the east, particularly in comparison with the maps from previous days that I've posted.
We are more-or-less at the bright green "67" sign. Looking at this map, it's very clear that a south or southwestern wind could blow that out of control eastern edge of the fire back up towards us. Yikes.
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More Scorched Acres By Diana Hsieh @ 12:29 PM
The Hayman fire is now estimated to have burned 135,889 acres. According to the noon news, the fire is burning one mile from Rampart Range Road, a trigger point for evacuation of some of the towns southeast of the fire. Fire crews have been pulled off of the north side of the fire to help out those battling the more active eastern edge. Also, another Type I team has been added, bringing the total up to three now. (I understand that just having two Type I teams on one fire was pretty unprecedented.)
Thankfully, winds are calm and the air is fairly clear here, which is good news for us!
Old Hags By Diana Hsieh @ 9:52 AM
I watched David Letterman's monologue last night, as I was avoiding going to bed. Oh man, is Letterman ever old! And he's just about as in-touch and funny as Bob Dole. So I say: Get rid of the old hags! I want to see Jon Stewart versus Craig Kilbourn battling it out for top late night comedian!
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Tuesday, June 18, 2002
Perry Park Evacuated By Diana Hsieh @ 11:54 PM
At the moment, the people in the Perry Park area have another 5 minutes or so to evacuate. They were given two hours notice, as well as an announcement this morning that they would likely be evacuated (blogged here). I wish them all the best.
At the moment, my horses are with Mike Paul, just two miles or so north of this new evacuation area. But I have no worries about them, as he can evacuate them quickly as needed. Plus, I suppose that he could evacuate them here if needed, as the hand line on the north side of the fire has held today.
The Hayman fire has now grown to about 120,000 acres. The containment has gone from 47% down to 40%. The weather tomorrow is supposed to be similar to today. Let's just hope the fire doesn't get too out of control.
Federal investigators are beginning to question the story of the U.S. Forest Service worker accused of starting the Hayman fire. Recreation technician Terry Lynn Barton, 38, appeared in federal court Monday morning to be advised of the charges against her. Barton told investigators she was enforcing the fire ban in the Pike National Forest on June 8 when she started burning a letter from her estranged husband within a designated campfire ring. She said she then tried to put out the blaze. Prosecutors now believe Barton made up the story. They say based on evidence gathered at the fire's starting point, it appears the fire was deliberately set and staged to look like an escaped campfire.
Hooray for forensics! Now I really hope Terry Barton gets the maximum penalty! She could spend many, many years in jail for deliberately setting a forest fire.
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Science Quiz By Diana Hsieh @ 12:49 PM
I guess that getting a BS degree from MIT doesn't help pass a basic science test for 4th, 8th, and 12th graders. Unlike Paul, I got all the questions correct. (He got the insanely easy #7 wrong.) Funny how Paul didn't mention his own scientific illiteracy in his blog entry about the quiz.
Due to yesterdays rapid southern fire expansion, residents living in the below areas, who are already on a "Stand by" evacuation status, are being alerted that a strong possibility exists that mandatory evacuations may occur as early as this afternoon, Tuesday, 06/18/02. Those areas that are advised to prepare for possible mandatory evacuation include: Areas west of Hwy. 105, bounded by the current mandatory evacuation area of the Pike National Forest boundary on the west, Tomah Road on the north, and the El Paso County line on the south, including: Perry Park, Indian Head, Wauconoa Lakes, Echo Hills, Echo Village, Douglas Park, Hidden Valley, Valley Park, Vaux Ranchette, Mountain Ranch, Woodmoor Mountain subdivision, Split Acres, Emily Griffith Youth Center. This "Stand by alert' is announced because fire officials expect the fire to advance rapidly today, with winds blowing north/northeast, creating the opportunity for the fire to spread very quickly.
That's a few miles south of us.
Oh, and wind is now predicted to be from the S and SW today, picking up to about 15-20 mph this afternoon. So right now, we're covered in smoke again.
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